Your tip. Scientifically founded.
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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals 🌳in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players,ꦑ the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determin𓄧ed of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegatio꧟n team.
Stunn💟ing: All teams in the 𓂃Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home an♛d 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
T🐬ypically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be pr🍸ecise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are๊ based🤡 upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only 🐠about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, th💟at figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extrao⛎rdinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on hi✤gher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially inꦿformative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscori🐟ng opportunit🥂ies are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The mar🌳ket value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a t🎃eam does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer t♈he season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunꦿities display the performances of teams.
A football match i🍃s dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectl🐓y predict the performance levꩵel.
The goal difference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (se൩ason) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take plac🦋e during the summer break and only rar💙e
There are no positive series. The🦄 concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist.🥂 As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant ♔for the prediction of goals.
The per♒formance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer t✤🌸o the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champio💟n at the end of the season.
No. Statiꦡstically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is🍸 enough for today, we will 𝓡let you know another rime.